2018 VP1

Apollo near-Earth asteroid

2018 VP1 is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 2 meters (7 feet) in diameter. The asteroid had a 0.41% chance (1 in 240) of impacting Earth on 2 November 2020 01:12 UT.[3] It was discovered on 3 November 2018 when it was about 0.003 AU (450,000 km; 280,000 mi) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 165 degrees. The asteroid has a short 12.9 day observation arc. It was last observed on 16 November 2018 by the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope at apparent magnitude 26 pushing the telescope close to the limiting magnitude.

The JPL Horizons 2 November 2020 nominal Earth approach was estimated as roughly 0.0028 AU (420,000 km; 260,000 mi).[2] The line of variations (LOV, uncertainty region[4]) allowed the asteroid to impact Earth[a] or pass as far away as 0.025 AU (3,700,000 km; 2,300,000 mi).[2] Its diameter of 2–4 meters makes it approximately 100–1000 times less massive than the 20-meter Chelyabinsk meteor.[b] An Earth-impact by this asteroid, assuming it is a common primitive chondrite, might rattle some windows after an airburst and/or drop pebble-sized meteorites on roof tops after dark flight.[5]

Preliminarily results are that nothing was detected via infrasound or atmospheric flash monitors.[6] The asteroid was not visually recovered.

Return

2018 VP1 has a low 3.2° orbital inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane and an Earth-MOID of only 9700 km.[2] Since the asteroid approached Earth in November 2018 and has a 2.00 year orbital period, the asteroid approached Earth again around 2 November 2020 (±3 days).[2][c] Where Earth will be on a given date is known. However, given the short observation arc and the two years since it was seen at all, the location of the asteroid along its orbit was imprecisely known.

The asteroid intersected Earth's orbit. A slight variation in the known orbit of the asteroid can cause it to be early (NEODyS solution), right on time (Sentry solution), or late (JPL solution).[d] The nominal NEODyS 1 November 2020 23:54 UT Earth approach is 0.0004 AU (60,000 km; 37,000 mi).[7] The Sentry Risk Table showed an estimated 1 in 240 chance of Earth impact on 2 November 2020 1:12 UT.[3] The nominal JPL Horizons 2 November 2020 11:33 UT Earth approach was 0.0028 AU (420,000 km; 260,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 4 million km.[2]

Line of variation (LOV) and different closest approaches
Date and time Closest Earth approach Reference
1 November 2020 23:54 0.0004 AU (60,000 km) NEODyS[7]
2 November 2020 01:12 Impact scenario Sentry[3][d]
2 November 2020 11:33 0.0028 AU (420,000 km) JPL SBDB[2]
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